Confessions of a Reluctant Blogger

Writing a blog in these times is a rather unrewarding dilemma. There are so many things that provide grist for the mill, but in turn, so many outrageous happenings that one must be very selective so as not to waste time on senseless trivia. As a person trained in the sciences and used to dealing in facts and informed theory, it’s frustrating to be bombarded with biased media, politically leaning network commentary, and raging TV pundits that deal in innuendo and speculation instead of factual and informed debate.

The moniker of this blog is “Economic Conservatism” and if you have read my posts, I obviously have conservative political leanings, but I am not a practicing economist. However, I have tried to comment on a range of topics, other than politics and economics. I have attempted to base my comments on factual information not solely my political orientation. I don’t want this blog to be just another overly zealous right-wing “rag” (there are plenty on both sides) but I certainly intend to defend traditional values, prudent fiscal policies, a strong defense, limited government, and free markets. If you have spent some time in this corner, you can tell I do not support government intervention in the private sector or my life, nor do I believe in the so-called progressive agenda and secular views of the left wing of the Democratic Party.

Unfortunately, it appears to me that we now have a President and a Congress that is controlled by this wing of the Democratic Party and I am quite concerned about “change we can’t believe in”. We now have a President that controls the major banks in this country, can fire the CEO of the largest domestic auto manufacturer, can tell GM what cars they will make, makes a pact with one of our largest companies (GE) to push his “green” agenda at great expense to the U.S. taxpayers, and is planning the largest re-distribution of wealth in the history of this country regardless of the fiscal damage to future generations. I find it very difficult to maintain a balanced view when I am fearful for the future of this country under one party control. History has taught us the tragic lessons from this kind of autocratic behavior and socialist trends.

I intend to address these issues that have befallen us from the policies in the first 100 days of this current Administration. I want to give President Obama every chance to succeed in bettering the policies of the past and accelerating our recovery from this recession, however, he must be accountable for his actions and the American electorate will give him a report card in the 2010 mid-term election.

Mr. Obama sounded like a centrist as a candidate, but governs like a left wing ideologue, and has broken most of his promises to the electorate in his first 100 days. His popularity has been adversely impacted and the moderates in his own party are beginning to break ranks. He said he hardly knew about the “tea parties” that have erupted in recent months and his followers have dismissed them as racially motivated and from “rednecks” who don’t want to pay their taxes. Mr. Obama is playing with dynamite if he believes that these demonstrations are solely about taxes. If he doesn’t listen, he is going to be in for a big surprise come 2012.

I am reluctant to sound so negative about this new President and I solicit comments from some sensible Democrats out there that have facts to present that will allay my fears. However, if you’re a left wing zealot, stay away.

Can You Believe The Polls?

The other day I was watching MSNBC, the Obama network, and they reported on a New York Times/CBS News poll on President Obama’s ratings with the “public”. Given the results of the poll and when combined with the public response to the Obama tax plan, the rather dubious bills coming out of the Democratic Congress, the tea parties that are cropping up all over the country protesting the Obama tax plan, I was an immediate skeptic.

The poll results showed a rather unexplainable exuberance from the American people for Obama and is a vivid example of the media love affair with him, particularly NBC, MSNBC, CBS, and the New York Times. The poll showed that Obama’s approval rating hit a new high of 66% up from 64% the previous month. Is this significant; and was the press release from CBS or the Obama campaign? Sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference.

According to former Democratic pollster Pat Caddell (who is no longer popular with his party) and a credible poll expert, “there is a problem with the way this poll was conducted”. Caddell says that the poll showed an extreme Democratic edge on party preference of 16 points. “No other poll has such an extreme partisan gap. It appears that the NY Times and CBS News manipulated the numbers until they came up with the desired results. In effect, they reduced the Republicans in the sample by 13% and increased the Democrats by 12% while the Independent voters were only changed by 2%”.

I also bet that you didn’t know that a Pew Research Poll was conducted just before the Times/CBS poll. It showed the new President in a different light. It stated that their poll showed “Barack Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings of any President in four decades”. Did you read about that poll in the newspapers or did you hear about that on prime news and MSNBC?

I’m not saying that polls are not indicative of public opinion; however, I am saying that the way questions are phrased and selection of the demographic base, has a significant effect on the results. It appears to me that the Obama people and certain news outlets are very good at getting the result they want, in fact, they have even mastered it better than Bill Clinton’s people who were very good at it. Remember Begala and Carvelle?

I think that pollsters like Gallup, Zagby, Rasmussen, are credible and usually objective. However, when polls are sponsored by newspapers, TV networks, and politically leaning organizations, be careful of drawing conclusions. Obama is personally very popular, most newly elected Presidents are, but the media love affair with him is very evident and not necessarily constructive for the country. Our free media has for decades been a key element in providing objective analysis for the masses and the voice of the people in our democratic society. When it becomes a tool of the government, we become no different from the worse dictators or tolitarian state.

The Estate Tax - Will It Ever Go Away?

If you were planning on dying next year in order to avoid the estate tax, forget it. Buried deep in President Obama’s new budget proposal to Congress in footnote 1 on page 127 is a note which reads, “The estate tax is maintained at its 2009 parameter”. So instead of falling to zero next year as scheduled under current law, that tax will remain at 45% with an exemption level of $3.5 million (or $7 million for a couple). In essence, this is a 100% increase in the estate tax next year from current law , even though President Obama’s chief economic advisor, Larry Summers, empathic when commenting on the proposed budget said, “Let’s be very clear: There are no, no tax increases this year. There are no, no tax increases next year”. Oh yes, there are Larry. The President’s budget calls for the largest increase in the death tax in U.S. history!

Obviously, the intent was that the death tax would go to zero in the tenth year of Bush’s first tax cut in 2001, and the political likelihood was that it would never return. The election of Barrack Obama eliminated that expectation. It doesn’t matter that the revenue generated by this tax is relatively insignificant or that most of the money in an estate is already taxed when it was earned, it’s all about the liberal ideology that believes taxing the wealthy 2% of American families that pay this tax is only “fair” because they are “rich” and we want to show our constituency that we are for “working” Americans.

The truth is that this tax is a farce and totally “unfair” because it is double taxation and ignores the fact that the longevity of most small businesses is motivated by the ability to pass on wealth to the next generation. This regressive tax makes it preferable to sell or liquidate your business rather than pass it on to your heirs who can’t afford to pay the tax and keep it going.

In fact, a recent study by one, Larry Summers, shows that between 41-66% of capital stock was transferred either by bequests at death or through trusts and lifetime gifts. Therefore, a higher the estate tax lessens the incentive to reinvest in family businesses. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that eliminating the death tax would increase small business investment by $1.6 trillion. This additional investment would create 1.5 million new jobs. That’s half the jobs President Obama said he hopes to gain from his $787 billion stimulus bill. It looks like we could have saved a lot of taxpayers’ money by just eliminating this most despised and unfair of all federal taxes.

President Obama, when are you going to stop being an ideologue and start using your common sense?