Can You Believe The Polls?

The other day I was watching MSNBC, the Obama network, and they reported on a New York Times/CBS News poll on President Obama’s ratings with the “public”. Given the results of the poll and when combined with the public response to the Obama tax plan, the rather dubious bills coming out of the Democratic Congress, the tea parties that are cropping up all over the country protesting the Obama tax plan, I was an immediate skeptic.

The poll results showed a rather unexplainable exuberance from the American people for Obama and is a vivid example of the media love affair with him, particularly NBC, MSNBC, CBS, and the New York Times. The poll showed that Obama’s approval rating hit a new high of 66% up from 64% the previous month. Is this significant; and was the press release from CBS or the Obama campaign? Sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference.

According to former Democratic pollster Pat Caddell (who is no longer popular with his party) and a credible poll expert, “there is a problem with the way this poll was conducted”. Caddell says that the poll showed an extreme Democratic edge on party preference of 16 points. “No other poll has such an extreme partisan gap. It appears that the NY Times and CBS News manipulated the numbers until they came up with the desired results. In effect, they reduced the Republicans in the sample by 13% and increased the Democrats by 12% while the Independent voters were only changed by 2%”.

I also bet that you didn’t know that a Pew Research Poll was conducted just before the Times/CBS poll. It showed the new President in a different light. It stated that their poll showed “Barack Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings of any President in four decades”. Did you read about that poll in the newspapers or did you hear about that on prime news and MSNBC?

I’m not saying that polls are not indicative of public opinion; however, I am saying that the way questions are phrased and selection of the demographic base, has a significant effect on the results. It appears to me that the Obama people and certain news outlets are very good at getting the result they want, in fact, they have even mastered it better than Bill Clinton’s people who were very good at it. Remember Begala and Carvelle?

I think that pollsters like Gallup, Zagby, Rasmussen, are credible and usually objective. However, when polls are sponsored by newspapers, TV networks, and politically leaning organizations, be careful of drawing conclusions. Obama is personally very popular, most newly elected Presidents are, but the media love affair with him is very evident and not necessarily constructive for the country. Our free media has for decades been a key element in providing objective analysis for the masses and the voice of the people in our democratic society. When it becomes a tool of the government, we become no different from the worse dictators or tolitarian state.